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Beyond the Snapshot: A Duke Researcher Is Using Blood Flow Simulations to Transform Heart Disease Diagnosis

By Allison Proffitt 

May 19, 2026 | For patients seeing a cardiologist, their diagnosis and next steps rest on data gathered at a single point in time: the day of their appointment. One blood pressure reading. One imaging scan. One day’s data to define the health of a continuously changing system.  

Amanda Randles, director of the Duke Center for Computational and Digital Health Innovation, envisions a better way.  

Working at the intersection of supercomputing, fluid dynamics, and clinical cardiology, Randles and her lab have developed a platform called HARVEY, a massively parallel blood flow solver that simulates 3D blood flow through patient-specific arterial geometries and powers algorithms including the Adaptive Physics Refinement (APR) algorithm, which couples subcellular-scale modeling to organ-level blood flow, and the Longitudinal Hemodynamic Mapping (LHM) algorithm, which enables simulations spanning millions of heartbeats. 

The platform creates a digital twin of a specific patient with the hope of not just replicating what a cardiologist could already measure in the clinic, but revealing metrics that have never been measurable at all — and understanding how those biomarkers will help us intervene sooner for the patients’ health. 

The Diagnostic Gap in Fractional Flow Reserve 

Randles’ earliest clinical target was fractional flow reserve (FFR), a widely used tool for deciding whether a coronary artery lesion warrants a stent. The calculation is straightforward: divide the blood pressure downstream of a blockage by the pressure upstream. A ratio below 0.80 is the conventional threshold for intervention. 

But 0.80 is a population-derived average, not a personalized number. Full 3D fluid simulations of patients’ coronary geometries add complexity. Calculating vorticity — the degree of turbulent, swirling flow near the arterial wall — reveals that patients just above the intervention threshold who also had elevated vorticity were significantly more likely to experience adverse cardiac events. 

“If they had a higher vorticity, they had a higher likelihood of having adverse events down the line,” Randles says. “Maybe you shouldn’t just have the cutoff be 0.8. Maybe it should be the patients that have a higher vorticity and are in that gray zone window, they should still actually be getting the stent.” 

Vorticity is not a metric a physician can currently order. There is no guide wire that measures it. It can be glimpsed, imperfectly, on a 4D flow MRI scan — but no patient is going to lie still in a scanner for the days or weeks needed to generate clinically actionable data. It is, for now, a computational biomarker: one that only exists inside the simulation. 

Building a Patient-Specific Model 

Every simulation begins with essential anatomy imaging. Randles’ platform requires a 3D mesh file derived from a CT or MRI scan enabling a detailed geometric model of the specific patient’s arteries.  

“People don’t even have the same number of coronary arteries,” Randles notes. “If you run the exact same heart rate and the same flow rate through two different geometries, one can be completely colored with a high-risk state, and the other is completely fine. The geometry changes it so, so much.” 

That anatomical variety changes the care a patient needs, but the HARVEY platform brings clarity to patient individuality—within a time constraint. A CT scan from three years ago may no longer accurately represent a patient’s arteries. “You can’t run a simulation for 10 years,” Randles says. You need updated images. 

Once the geometry is in place, the simulation requires one more input: the velocity of blood entering the modeled vessel. This is where wearable devices enter the picture. 

From Fitbit to Fluid Dynamics 

Translating a consumer fitness tracker’s output into a boundary condition for a high-fidelity physics simulation is not obvious work. Cardiac output — the volume of blood the heart pumps per minute — is the key variable, and it is difficult to derive from a wrist-worn sensor. 

Randles’ lab developed a workaround. Using heart rate data from devices like Fitbits, the team infers whether a patient is at rest or exercising and scales the velocity waveform accordingly. A patient in an exercise state has a much higher inflow velocity to the coronary arteries; a patient at rest has a lower one. By matching the scaled velocity to physiologically appropriate benchmarks, the team constructs the inlet condition the simulation needs. 

“It’s not just an AI or data-driven thing,” Randles is careful to clarify. “You’re actually running a physics-based simulation using that velocity inflow condition.” The wearable data provides temporal context; the fluid dynamics equations do the rest. 

The result, at least in computational validation, is the ability to run what amounts to a continuous simulation of a patient’s cardiovascular state — tracking how blood flow metrics shift across weeks of ordinary life, including exercise, sleep, and recovery. 

The Heart Failure Application: Monitoring Without Implants 

One immediate clinical application of this approach is predicting heart failure. Today, physicians can implant pulmonary artery pressure monitors — Abbott’s CardioMEMS device is one example — that sit permanently inside a patient’s pulmonary artery and transmit a single daily pressure reading, taken while the patient is lying down. Clinical evidence shows that pressure changes one to two weeks before a heart failure event allowing informed physicians to intervene with medication adjustments and dramatically reduce hospitalizations. 

Randles wants to replicate that early-warning signal without the implant, and to do it continuously rather than once a day. 

Her lab has already demonstrated proof-of-concept: using CT scans of patients’ pulmonary arteries and their computational flow simulations, they matched the pressure readings that CardioMEMS would have generated non-invasively. “We know that we can get the right answer,” she says.

The Carotid Trial: Predicting Recurrence Over Time 

A second ongoing clinical study is tracking patients who have had revascularization procedures on their carotid arteries — procedures to remove or bypass dangerous arterial narrowing — and following them for up to a year using wearable sensors and periodic imaging. 

The research question is longitudinal: can cumulative hemodynamic risk exposure, calculated from the flow simulation, predict how a patient’s artery will change at three-month and six-month follow-up visits? Can it identify disease recurrence earlier than current clinical markers? 

“If we know your cumulative risk exposure over three months, is that going to help us predict any change in diameter faster and identify any recurrence of the disease easier?” Randles asks. 

Results are not yet available, but the architecture of the question represents a meaningful departure from how vascular disease has been monitored: not a single-point measurement at a clinic visit, but an integrated risk score that accumulates over time and changes circumstantially. 

Circulating Tumor Cells: An Unexpected Extension 

The same simulation framework that models blood flow around an arterial lesion can, it turns out, model something else moving through those vessels: cancer cells. 

Circulating tumor cells travel through arteries and veins until they lodge somewhere and metastasize. But what determines where they go? Why some cells are more likely to metastasize than others? 

Randles’ platform offers a way to study the question with experimental precision. By introducing virtual cancer cells into the simulated blood flow — varying their shape, size, stiffness, and adhesive properties at the molecular level — the team can observe which characteristics cause a cell to spend more time near the vessel wall, which is a precondition for implanting. 

“It really gives us a nice platform where we can keep everything absolutely the same and then just change, like, the radius of the cell very slightly and see if that affects where it’s going to go in the geometry or how much time it’s spending there,” Randles says. 

The work focuses on solid tumors whose cells travel via the bloodstream, and the group is collaborating with microfluidics groups to characterize real cancer cell populations and validate the computational results against physical experiments. 

The translational promise is therapeutic: if the simulation can identify what physical properties drive metastatic spread, it could help target drug development toward disrupting those specific mechanisms. 

Better Biomarkers 

In all cases, the goal is not just to replicate what the implantable sensor already does, but to find better predictors — ones that could extend the warning window further or identify patients at risk earlier in their disease course. Having continuous, non-invasive access to pulmonary artery pressure data throughout the day, during exercise and recovery, opens a much larger discovery space. 

“We’ve never had access to what your 3D blood flow looks like throughout the entire day,” Randles says. “We don’t know what the biomarkers are. Is it really going to be pulmonary artery pressure or is it the vorticity that changes three weeks ahead of time? Or the recovery after exercise and the change in your baseline from how vorticity may change after you exercise? Is that more predictive?”  

Right now, the possibilities seem endless and the data problem daunting.  

Running a 3D fluid simulation over weeks of continuous wearable data generates an enormous amount of information. Four and a half million heartbeats — roughly six weeks of continuous cardiac activity — have already been processed. The computational methods to scale simulations across those time horizons have been validated. What remains is the clinical question: in all that data, what patterns are actually predictive of disease events? 

Randles suspects the answer will be personal in ways that population-level statistics cannot capture. A 5% change in post-exercise vorticity recovery might mean nothing for one patient’s geometry and signal serious trouble for another. Identifying meaningful phenotypic clusters — groups of patients whose anatomical and hemodynamic profiles are similar enough that shared thresholds make sense — may be the intermediate step between individual simulation and scalable clinical tool. 

“Maybe there are 10 different clusters of patients where you can just figure out what is significant about your geometry and have some kind of phenotype,” she says. “But until we get all the data, it’s hard to tell.” 

The trials will provide that data. The harder work, it seems, will be in making sense of it.

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